We've now reached a bitcoin mining difficulty of 40,000,000,000. Judging by the conditions present at the first half of the year, we should've hit this level some time ago. But the increase in hash rate has slowed down recently, according to the chart on Bitcoin Wisdom.
If we stay at the current difficulty from now on, with no percentage increase, then we can expect to see the next block reward halving on July 31, 2016, matching bitcoinclock.com. But that's not the case in reality; the difficulty is still rising.
If you average together the last 20 changes in difficulty increases, you get 11.98%. Assuming current mining conditions and continuing production of ASIC chips, we can calculate a more accurate estimated date for the next halving.
The equation:
(Number_of_Blocks_Remaining) / (1+Average_Difficulty_Change) * Average_Seconds_per_Block = Seconds_Until_Next_Halving
Inputs:
Next halving block = 420000
Current block = 330788
Average seconds per block = 600
Average difficulty change = 0.1198
This equates to: (420000-330788) / (1+0.1198) * 600 = 47800678 Seconds
Or 553 days from now.
Submitted November 20, 2014 at 04:37AM by klynastor http://ift.tt/1uLDUC6